The EUR/USD pair extended its slide to 1.0824 on Wednesday, finally finding buyers in the area. The pair bounced towards the current 1.0850 price zone as the US Dollar came under modest selling pressure. Still, the Euro’s recovery has been limited by softer-than-anticipated local data.

“Provisional PMI survey data signalled a near-stagnation of the eurozone private sector during July as the currency bloc’s,” according to the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB). The Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) resulted at 45.6 in July, down from the previous 45.8. The services Index eased to 51.9, while the Composite PMI barely held in expansionary territory, easing from 50.9 in June to 50.1.

Meanwhile, stock markets turned south amid weaker-than-anticipated earning reports spurring concerns about economic progress. Wall Street is poised to open in the red as another batch of big names prepares to announce results.

Data-wise, the United States (US) just published MBA Mortgages Applications for the week ended July 19, which declined by 2.2%. Also, June Wholesale Inventories stood at 0.2% in June, according to preliminary estimates, better than anticipated, while the Goods Trade Balance for the same month posted a deficit of $96.8 billion. Coming up next, the US will release June New Home Sales, while S&P Global will publish the preliminary estimates of the July PMIs.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows it trimmed most of its early losses, although it still trades in the red. Technical indicators maintain their downward slopes just above their midlines, suggesting bearish pressure continues. At the same time, a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) provided intraday support while extending its advance beyond the 100 and 200 SMAs, somehow limiting the odds for a steeper slide.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is correcting oversold conditions but far from suggesting another leg north. The pair is battling to overcome a still bullish 100 SMA, while a bearish 20 SMA heads firmly north at around 1.0870. Finally, the Momentum indicator turned higher, but remains below its 100 line, while the RSI bounced sharply from extreme readings, but stands at around 38.

Support levels: 1.0820 1.0770 1.0725

Resistance levels: 1.0870 1.0910 1.0945

Silver prices have increased by 23.07% since the beginning of the year.

Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD
Troy Ounce 29.28
1 Gram 0.94
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 82.42 on Wednesday, broadly unchanged from 82.43 on Tuesday.

SILVER FAQS
Why do people invest in Silver?
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Gold trades higher amid US economic slowdown
Gold’s recovery is also fueled by expectations of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed), which make non-interest-bearing assets like Gold more attractive to investors. The interplay of economic indicators and central bank policies will continue to be crucial in shaping Gold’s price trajectory in the near term.

Traders now await the release of more US economic data later this week for clarity on the trajectory of US interest rates. Of major interest will be the US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth data on Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for June on Friday.

The Q2 GDP growth advance estimate is expected to show a 1.9% expansion, up from 1.4% in Q1, while the PCE price index is forecasted to see a 0.1% uptick after remaining flat in May. Although recently, cooling US headline consumer inflation bolstered expectations that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in September, whether more cuts are likely before the end of the year remains open for debate. If the data surprises to the upside, the Fed may delay lowering interest rates beyond September. This would weigh on the Gold price.

Another factor impacting Gold price is that US Vice President Kamala Harris secured the support of enough delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination. This has prompted some unwinding of the “Trump trade” and dragged US bond yields lower – both positive factors for Gold. In some polls, Harris now leads Trump, suggesting a less inflationary outlook for the economy if she wins.

Wednesday’s release of the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July will be looked upon for fresh cues about the health of the global economy and potentially allow traders to grab short-term opportunities around the precious metal.

Technical Analysis: Gold potentially unfolding down leg in sideways consolidation
Gold looked like it broke out of the upside of a sideways range last week but failed to sustain any bullish follow-through. It has since capitulated back inside the range. It is possible to redraw the range with a slanting top, which would indicate the new high achieved on July 17 was still within the confines of the range rather than a breakout, as previously thought.

XAU/USD Daily Chart

Such a revision would also now suggest the Gold price was unfolding a new down leg within the widening range towards the floor and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at circa $2,320. The 50-day SMA at $2,360 is likely to present temporary support on the way down. A break below Monday’s low of $2,383 would provide bearish confirmation of more downside towards the range low.

Alternatively, above the $2,483 new all-time-high would indicate the establishment of a higher high and suggest the possibility of a breakout to the upside and an extension of the uptrend. Such a move might unlock Gold’s next upside target at roughly $2,555-$2,560, calculated by extrapolating the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of the height of the range higher.

Silver prices have increased by 11.86% since the beginning of the year.

Unit measure Today Price
Silver price per troy ounce $28.49
Silver price per gram $0.92

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of troy ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one troy ounce of Gold, stood at 83.54 on Thursday, down from 83.72 on Wednesday.

Investors might use this ratio to determine the relative valuation of Gold and Silver. Some may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued – or Gold is overvalued – and might buy Silver or sell Gold accordingly. Conversely, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Global Market Movers: Comex Silver price makes another headway toward $29.00
Silver price extends its upside around $28.50 in Thursday’s early European session.
Rising industrial demand and ongoing tensions in the Middle East benefit the white metal.
ANZ commodity analysts said that Silver still has significant potential, even after hitting solid resistance at $29.90 last week.
The higher chance that the Fed will delay its easing cycle might cap the upside of the ilver price.
Fed Cleveland President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday that inflation is higher than anticipated and the Fed needs more confidence in its trajectory.
Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that he will wait for more evidence to gain confidence that inflation is headed toward the central bank’s 2% goal before lowering borrowing costs.

According to The Times, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has clarified that “their state will do everything necessary to defend itself,” according to The Times. The comments from PM Netanyahu came after his conversation with foreign ministers from the United Kingdom and Germany.

The recovery in Gold is also driven by a decline in US Treasury yields, which are influenced by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook. 10-year US bond yields edge down to 4.57% from a more than five-month high of 4.70%. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets diminish the cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Gold.

Daily digest market movers: Gold price moves higher as US Dollar corrects
Gold price recovers majority of Wednesday’s losses and rises higher to $2,380 as investors remain worried about geopolitical tensions. Traders continue to gung-ho for Gold amid fears that Israel could retaliate to Iran’s attack on their territory in which the Iranian military launched hundreds of drones and missiles.
A correction in the US Dollar also supports the precious metal. Five-day winning streak in the US Dollar has been halted as traders expect that other central banks from developed nations will also delay their rate cut plans due to persistent price pressures. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, falls sharply to 105.75. Generally, the appeal of dollar-denominated Gold improves amid soft US Dollar.
The near-term demand for the US Dollar remains firm as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers see interest rates remaining higher for a longer period until they get convincing data that inflation will return sustainably to the desired rate of 2%.
On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said recent data has clearly not given policymakers confidence that they should start considering rate cuts. Instead, interest rates need to remain higher for longer than expected to gain that confidence.
On Wednesday, Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester also argued for keeping the monetary policy framework restrictive. Mester remained optimistic that the Fed will eventually gain the confidence to lower interest rates and start normalising policy again, but that shouldn’t be done quickly.
Meanwhile, the US Department of Labor has posted steady Individual Jobless Claims for the week ending April 12. Individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time were similar to previous week’s reading of 212K, slightly lower than the estimates of 215K
Technical Analysis: Gold price aims to recapture $2,400

Gold price advances to $2,380 in Thursday’s London session after edging down on Wednesday. The precious metal remains inside the $2,350-2,400 trading range from the last two trading sessions. The upside in the precious metal remains limited as momentum oscillators are cooling down after turning extremely overbought. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart drops slightly after peaking around 85.00. The broader-term demand is intact as the RSI remains in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00.

On the downside, April 5 low near $2,268 and March 21 high at $2,223 will be major support areas for the Gold price.

The US Dollar, meanwhile, is having a change of heart as well, turning back in the green after yet again upbeat US data and beat on estimates across the board. Overnight several central banks had issued concerns on the strong US Dollar. In Asia the Bank of Japan and the Bank of South Korea even took it a step further and issued a joint statement saying that the strong US Dollar is messing with their measures to tackle inflation, and a joint invertention might be needed in order to limit the inflation inflow for their depreciating local currency against the Greenback.

Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $81.99 and Brent Crude at $86.73 at the time of writing.

Oil news and market movers: Slapping around
Recent data shows that Iran is exporting the highest amount of Oil in more than six years, the Financial Times reports.
China is set to have a surplus of Oil production, expanding to 82m tons by 2030, according to Li Ran, a researcher at CNPC’s Economics & Technology Research Institute. This surplus would make up for any shortfall in the markets from OPEC and other suppliers.
Leading Goldman Sachs Analyst Daan Struyven sees $90 as a ceiling for Brent Crude.
The recent Crude Oil Inventories report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that the Gulf Coast stockpiles are at their highest level in a year. Us Inventories grew by 2.74 million barrels, the highest since June 2023.
Oil Technical Analysis: Anything but bearish
Oil prices are not rallying despite the current stance from the Biden administration with sanctions being slapped on Venezuela and are set to be issued for Iran, which should be rather supportive for Oil prices. On the production front, Iran is number 3 and Venezuela is number 9 on oil production volumes within OPEC. Sanctions on Iran thus might be having a heavier impact on prices than the ones for Venezuela, which means the Biden administration will probably sanction non-oil sectors in order to avoid disruptions in the global Oil supply.

With geopolitical tensions lingering, the $83.34 and $90 handle should remain in grasp. One small barrier in the way is $89.64, the peak from October 20. In case of further escalating tensions in the Middle East, expect even $94 to become a possibility, and a fresh 18-month high could be on the cards.

On the downside, $80.63 is the next candidate as a pivotal supportive level. A touch softer, the convergence with the 55-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $79.88 and $79.57 should halt any further downturn.

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart

Gold price stood at 73,030 Indian Rupees (INR) per 10 grams, up INR 45 compared with the INR 72,985 it cost on Wednesday.

As for futures contracts, Gold prices increased to INR 72,549 per 10 gms from INR 72,523 per 10 gms.

Prices for Silver futures contracts increased to INR 83,519 per kg from INR 83,499 per kg.

Major Indian city Gold Price
Ahmedabad 75,550
Mumbai 75,400
New Delhi 75,380
Chennai 75,380
Kolkata 75,570

Global Market Movers: Comex Gold price resumes uptrend amid geopolitical risks
Gold price appreciates as traders exercise caution amid concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi warned that Israeli retaliation against Iranian strikes could potentially escalate the conflict throughout the entire region.
Furthermore, Israel’s Air Force announced on Wednesday that its fighter jets had targeted Hezbollah infrastructure north of Baalbek in eastern Lebanon.
The correction in the US Dollar, primarily influenced by subdued US Treasury yields and profit-taking, supports the demand for the USD-denominated yellow metal.
Attention turns toward speeches from several US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers, which could influence the market expectations for an interest rate cut, significanly affecting the non-interest-bearing Gold price.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

S&P500 futures remains flat in the Asian session, portraying a cautious market mood. The USD Index oscillates inside Thursday’s trading range amid absence of front-line economic indicators. 10-year US Treasury yields have climbed to near 4.17%.

Meanwhile, investors shift focus towards the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting, which will be announced on January 31. The Fed is widely anticipated to maintain interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25-5.50%. Investors will keenly focus on the guidance on interest rates as when the Fed is considering its first rate-cut after a historically swift ‘rate-tightening’ campaign.

On Thursday, Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said rate-cuts can be announced sooner if the central bank has ‘convincing’ evidence that inflation will return to the 2% target in a timely manner. Bostic warned that premature rate cuts and boost overall demand and push price pressures higher, which can spoil efforts yet made to contain stubborn inflation.

Silver technical analysis
Silver price oscillates inside the Descending Triangle chart pattern on a daily scale, which indicates a sharp contraction in volatility. The asset hovers near the horizontal support of the aforementioned chart pattern, which is December 13 low of $22.50. The downward-sloping trendline of the volatility contraction pattern is plotted from December 3 high at $25.92.

The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $23.20 continues to act as a resistance for Silver price bulls.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is at a make or a break level. A convincing stability in the 20.00-40.00 range will trigger a bearish momentum.

Silver daily chart

XAG/USD
OVERVIEW
Today last price 22.68
Today Daily Change -0.07
Today Daily Change % -0.31
Today daily open 22.75

TRENDS
Daily SMA20 23.38
Daily SMA50 23.67
Daily SMA100 23.2
Daily SMA200 23.58

LEVELS
Previous Daily High 22.76
Previous Daily Low 22.42
Previous Weekly High 23.53
Previous Weekly Low 22.48
Previous Monthly High 25.92
Previous Monthly Low 22.51
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 22.63
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 22.55
Daily Pivot Point S1 22.53
Daily Pivot Point S2 22.31
Daily Pivot Point S3 22.19
Daily Pivot Point R1 22.86
Daily Pivot Point R2 22.98
Daily Pivot Point R3 23.2

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) extends its sideways consolidative price move below a one-month peak set on Wednesday and lends additional support to the Gold price. That said, diminishing odds for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to push the US Treasury bond yields higher. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the Greenback. Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets might contribute to capping the upside for the XAU/USD.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price benefits from geopolitical risks, Fed rate cut uncertainty warrants caution for bulls
The US-led forces continue to clash with the Iran-backed Houthi group in the Red Sea and seem to lend some support to the safe-haven Gold price amid a subdued US Dollar price action.
Houthi rebels in Yemen launched two anti-ship ballistic missiles at a US-owned, Greek-operated tanker ship on Thursday and the US, in response, carried out its fifth strike against Houthi targets.
Pakistan undertook a series of military strikes against terrorist hideouts in the Sistan-Baluchistan province of Iran, while the latter began a planned air defense drill from its port of Chabahar near Pakistan.
The USD consolidates below its highest level since December 13 touched earlier this week, though reduced bets for a March rate cut by the Federal Reserve continue to act as a tailwind.
The incoming resilient US macro data released this week suggested that the economy is in good shape and gives the central bank headroom to keep interest rates higher for longer.
Against the backdrop of the upbeat US Retail Sales figures on Wednesday, data released on Thursday showed that the Initial Jobless Claims fell to the lowest level since September 2022.
The markets were quick to react to the strong labor-market report and are now pricing just over a 50% chance of a rate cut at the March FOMC meeting, down from 75% a week ago.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond touched its highest level since mid-December, which favours the USD bulls and should cap gains for the non-yielding yellow metal.
Traders now look to the US macro data – the Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations, along with Existing Home Sales – for short-term opportunities.
Technical Analysis: Gold price is likely to confront stiff resistance and remain capped near the $2,040-2,042 supply zone
From a technical perspective, the lack of follow-through buying beyond the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggests that the selling bias is still far from being over. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the downside. Hence, any further move up might still be seen as an opportunity for bearish traders and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near the $2,040-2,042 static resistance. Some follow-through buying, however, might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAU/USD towards the $2,077 area en route to the $2,100 psychological mark.

On the flip side, bearish traders might now wait for a sustained break below the $2,000 round figure before placing fresh bets. The Gold price might then accelerate the downfall towards the December monthly swing low, around the $1,974-1,973 region. The latter near the 100- and 200-day SMAs confluence, around the $1,971-1,963 area, which if broken decisively should pave the way for deeper losses towards the $1,955 intermediate support. The XAU/USD could eventually drop to the November swing low, around the $1,932-1,931 region.

US Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro.

USD EUR GBP CAD AUD JPY NZD CHF
USD -0.09% -0.02% 0.00% -0.02% 0.07% 0.25% 0.00%
EUR 0.09% 0.07% 0.08% 0.05% 0.16% 0.32% 0.09%
GBP 0.02% -0.06% 0.02% -0.01% 0.08% 0.28% 0.03%
CAD 0.00% -0.09% -0.02% -0.05% 0.07% 0.26% 0.00%
AUD 0.04% -0.03% 0.03% 0.04% 0.10% 0.29% 0.04%
JPY -0.07% -0.15% -0.08% -0.08% -0.10% 0.19% -0.07%
NZD -0.27% -0.36% -0.27% -0.28% -0.31% -0.19% -0.27%
CHF 0.00% -0.06% -0.02% 0.00% -0.07% 0.09% 0.23%